Hezbollah still strong enough to drag Lebanon into civil war, expert warns

Hezbollah has the military capabilities and support to drag Lebanon into a civil war, Lieutenant Colonel (Res.) Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center, told The Jerusalem Post on Monday, a day after Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem directed the terror group's follower base to “bring down the government.”“It is the people's right to take to the streets and bring down the government in the face of the American-Israeli project targeting our institutions,” Qassem said in an address Zehavi suspected was largely directed and scripted by the Islamic regime.Acknowledging Hezbollah has made a number of statements against the Lebanese state in recent months, particularly in the lead-up to peace talks with Jerusalem, Zehavi said it was unclear whether the statement was yet another threat of intimidation or a legitimate instruction for the Shiite community.“Whether this will actually start a civil war, we don't know, but he definitely gave them the directive,” she said. “It is definitely in the spirit of the [command] to go for it.”To be taken into consideration when evaluating the seriousness of the threat, she explained, is the fact that Hezbollah is a group loyal to Iran, not Lebanon. Through the tenet of Wilayat al-Faqih, the terror group has sworn loyalty to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as it once did to Khamenei's now-assassinated father, Ali Khamenei.The speech, she theorized, was likely delivered to further pressure Washington into making a deal with Tehran, threatening to further disrupt the region if US President Donald Trump doesn't bow to the regime's demands for a ceasefire in Lebanon, unfreezing of Iranian assets, and an American withdrawal.The aim of Hezbollah aligns with that of IranThe aim of Hezbollah aligns with that of Iran, and its goal is to see Lebanon reduced to an Islamic state run under the powers of the Islamic Republic, she continued. The destruction of Israel is only one of its goals, and, therefore, a civil war would not be an absurd next step. Under attack from Israel and from the changing rhetoric surrounding Lebanon, thanks in part to the updated legislation calling for their demilitarization, even if said legislation has not been practiced, Hezbollah is also more likely to launch an attack.Its Shia Muslim base, one of the country's largest single religious sects, means it also has the numbers to seriously destabilize Lebanon.

Statistics Lebanon, an independent polling and research firm, estimated in 2022 that 32% of Lebanon's population is Shia.Large proportion of the population is supportive of HezbollahThe International Information Company in Lebanon also published in a poll this month data which suggested the large majority of that population is supportive of Hezbollah and its continued possession of arms.Beirut could have avoided this situation had it worked to disarm Hezbollah sooner or actually put into place the legislation it passed earlier this year, Zehavi said, adding that the Israeli, Lebanese, and American military would all need to coordinate and be given permissions to act across the country in a “proactive” campaign against Hezbollah.She concluded her conversation with The Post by cautioning against Trump agreeing to a ceasefire in Lebanon on Israel's behalf, warning that “lots of lives” would be lost and Israel was already “paying the price” for prematurely ending its last campaign.The first-person view (FPV) drones that were praised by Qassem during his Sunday speech are likely a new addition that Hezbollah equipped itself with during the ceasefire, she noted, recognizing its large-scale absence in the previous war.