Motilal Oswal sector of the week: Internet; here's why Eternal is top bet

India's live entertainment market is moving through a structural transition, gradually shifting away from sponsorship-led event economics toward a more balanced, ticket-driven model. The change reflects a deeper evolution in discretionary consumption, particularly among urban millennials and Gen Z audiences, where live experiences are becoming a recurring spend category rather than an occasional indulgence. Over the past two years, the industry has moved decisively toward ticket monetisation, with tickets now contributing roughly 50-70 per cent of event revenues compared to 10-30 per cent earlier.

While brands continue to participate, they are no longer the primary revenue backbone. Approximately 70 per cent of urban Gen Z and millennials attended at least one live event in the past year, with travelling fans on major ticketing platforms growing around 18 per cent year-on-year in 2025; a sign that demand is broadening geographically, not just deepening in existing markets. A key feature of this transition is pricing resilience. Entry-level tickets have moved from around ₹2,000 to ₹5,500, while premium and VIP segments now routinely range between ₹7,500 and ₹25,000-plus.

Demand has remained robust despite this increase, with leading events continuing to report 85-90 per cent+ fill rates, signalling a meaningful structural improvement in willingness to pay. The expansion of global artist participation has further strengthened the category. International debuts in India have risen sharply from about three in 2023 to nine in 2025, with expectations of around twelve in 2026. Each new entrant expands the addressable fan base and supports demand creation, reinforcing both pricing power and event frequency.

However, the market remains structurally constrained by execution realities. Infrastructure continues to be the primary bottleneck, with fewer than ten large-format, purpose-built concert venues in the country. Most events are hosted in cricket stadiums or open grounds not designed for live music, creating persistent challenges around acoustics, logistics, and crowd management. Mid-sized venue scarcity also limits penetration into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities despite visible demand.

Industry economics remain highly sensitive to utilisation. Cost structures are dominated by fixed elements — artist guarantees and production expenses can account for 40-60 per cent of gross revenues. A representative 50,000-capacity concert indicates Ebitda margins of approximately 9 per cent at 85 per cent utilisation, with breakeven in the 71-75 per cent range and margins expanding meaningfully toward 16 per cent+ at full capacity. This convexity underscores both the upside potential and the downside risk embedded in the model.

Recent cancellations and postponements highlight that the sector remains in a formative phase. Yet the structural growth case is intact: India's concert market, estimated at ₹50-66 billion today, is projected to reach ₹120-150 billion by FY30, a 2–2.5x expansion; driven by rising incomes, deepening urban consumption, and a per-capita live entertainment spend that, at $22-25 annually, remains a fraction of developed market levels. The opportunity is real; the execution runway is long.Eternal – TP: ₹340Eternal Ltd. continues to strengthen its leadership in quick commerce and food delivery through deeper assortment, wider geographic coverage, and improving store economics. Management remains confident of sustaining 60 per cent+ Blinkit NOV CAGR over the next three years, with a long-term path toward $1 billion adjusted Ebitda by FY29.

It reported Q4FY26 net revenue of ₹172 billion, up 196 per cent Y-o-Y, while consolidated Ebitda margin improved to 2.8 per cent. Food delivery NOV grew ahead of expectations to ₹97.6 billion, while Blinkit NOV rose 96 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹143.8 billion. PAT stood at ₹1.74 billion, supported by improving profitability across quick commerce operations. Management expects food delivery NOV growth of 20 per cent+ with stable 5-6 per cent margins, while Blinkit growth is likely to normalise near 70 per cent in FY27 amid elevated competition.

We expect gradual margin expansion driven by store maturity and operating leverage, with PAT margins of 2.4 per cent/3.0 per cent in FY27/28E. Beyond Blinkit, key growth drivers include Hyperpure and the Going-Out segment. Hyperpure is targeting an ₹8,000 crore revenue run rate, while the company continues to scale its Going-Out business. Significant retail disruption is expected as the company plans to expand to over 3,000+ stores. ========================= Disclaimer: This article is by Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Research Desk.

Views expressed are their own.