Seahawks, Ravens, Bills among overrated Super Bowl LXI contenders

One of the problems with NFL analysts is that they assume too much of a carryover from the previous year. But if there’s anything the NFL has taught us, it’s that recency bias often leads to poor analysis. And that’s why the Seattle Seahawks are overrated as Super Bowl LXI contenders, along with the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. Everything seems to start in 2026 with the Seahawks being the team to beat.

They are not. It doesn’t matter that they won it all in 2025. Sure, they will be good this year.

But other teams will be better. Will the Seahawks be able to run it back in 2026? That’s not to say the Seahawks won’t be competitive.

But when we’re talking about grinding it down to two teams, the Seahawks won’t make it. They lost some key players, and their draft didn’t exactly turn heads. None of their picks is expected to have a starting role. They lost guys like Kenneth Walker (Chiefs), Boye Mafe (Bengals), Coby Bryant (Bears), and Riq Woolen (Eagles).

And they didn’t ramp up their offensive line, according to ESPN. “With the defense taking hits in free agency and Kenneth Walker leaving for the Chiefs, though, I would have liked general manager John Schneider to put a little more into building the line,” Bill Barnwell wrote. “His only addition was fifth-round pick Beau Stephens. Adding someone to offer competition for right guard Anthony Bradford, whom teams targeted throughout the season, or extra depth to help if oft-injured right tackle Abraham Lucas doesn’t play all 17 games after doing so for the first time in 2025, would help.

But then again, I also said that last year, and it didn’t matter.” However, the chances that it won’t matter two years in a row are slim. Plus, who is buying another season from quarterback Sam Darnold at that level? Yes, he’s had back-to-back Pro Bowl appearances. Who is willing to stand behind him for a third?

And here’s the thing. The Seahawks needed a lot from Darnold last year, and he delivered.

But they will likely need more from him in 2026. Can he handle that delivery? The Seahawks still have a great coach in Mike Macdonald.

But even the best coaches go back and forth. The run by Andy Reid and the Chiefs was a generational thing. It’s not something the Seahawks are going to be able to duplicate. So, which teams are legitimately in the mix for a Seahawks dethroning party?

There are only a few. The Bills and Ravens have key challenges to overcome A lot of people want to throw the Bills and the Ravens at the top.

But they both have new head coaches, each in their first season of that demanding and experience-needed position. Really, the bet on those teams is based on the quarterbacks. It’s the idea that Lamar Jackson can lift Jesse Minter to the Super Bowl. It’s the notion that Josh Allen could push Joe Brady into the promised land.

However, lest we forget, Allen has never been there. Jackson hasn’t made it. We would be asking either of those players to make it for the first time, with a rookie head coach. That’s a hard sell.

Another problem with the Bills is the same old receiver story. Who is buying DJ Moore as a Super Bowl WR1? That’s an eight-year veteran speeding toward 30 years old. And he’s coming off the least productive season of his NFL career.

Fifty catches for 682 yards in a full 17 games. And Moore did that with a coach, Ben Johnson, who is considered an offensive guru. How do you give Moore a bump with another offensive guru in Brady, who has no head coaching experience? Are we saying Brady is greater than Johnson?

And the Bills don’t have an impressive receiver room after Moore. What about the Ravens? Could Minter unlock the playoff secret that has always mystified Jackson? Isn’t Minter a defensive guru?

Here’s the thing about the Ravens. They will, like the Bills, win their share of regular-season games. It’s the postseason that will be the problem. Plus, Jackson also has questionable receiving threats after Zay Flowers at WR1.

Rashod Bateman is WR2. Devontez Walker is WR3. Jackson may have to increase his scramble runs in 2026. What about the Eagles?

We have a one-year buffer zone from their Super Bowl run. Could they bounce back for a return this year? Yes, it’s a possibility based on the current roster. There’s plenty to like about this offense.

And the defense should be just fine. The problem? The offense won’t look the same when the Eagles deal AJ Brown this summer. Of course, they haven’t done it yet.

So there’s still hope. But once they do, DeVonta Smith becomes WR1. That won’t work for a Super Bowl team. Makai Lemon moves into the WR2 spot.

That’s shaky until proven otherwise. Now, the Eagles do have some good depth at the receiver position in Dontayvion Wicks, Hollywood Brown, and Elijah Moore. Maybe they maintain a decent passing attack.

But unless running back Saquon Barkley has like a 1,800-yard rushing season left in that well-worn body, the Eagles don’t figure to have enough without Brown. So who does that leave on the do-not-buy list? The Chiefs might start slow and become a postseason threat. If Patrick Mahomes gets back to an elite level, don’t write off the Chiefs.

The Lions will be a threat, but don’t expect them to make it through the jungle. They have plenty of weapons.

But it’s hard to see that defense being healthy enough when it matters most. Who are the real contenders in 2026? Here they are, with a brief reason why. 1. Los Angeles Rams — It’s the combination of Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay, Puca Nakua, and a strong defense.

In that order. 2. San Francisco 49ers — The defense will be better, and the offense added Mike Evans.

Furthermore, Kyle Shanahan may be the NFL’s second-best coach behind Andy Reid. 3. Dallas Cowboys — They potentially have the best offense. Their quarterback is capable of leading the team. And the defense is vastly improved.

The drawback is an unproven head coach. That’s why they’re No. 3.

But they have a shot. In the AFC, it’s: 1. Denver Broncos — People are sleeping on this team. The Broncos are still loaded, according to NFL.com. “When I was putting together the top five draft needs for all 32 teams after the dust settled from free agency, it was hard to fill out Denver’s list,” Dan Parr wrote. “The team is strong everywhere you look, with the interior defensive line the only spot that might have taken a significant hit this offseason, due to the departure of John Franklin-Myers.” 2.

Houston Texans — When you can field a defense like the Texans, you have a shot in any game at any time. Plus, head coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback CJ Stroud have proven they can win playoff games. This team is built to win in the 2026 postseason.