Will peace talks collapse after US conducts ‘defensive strikes’ against Iran?

On Sunday, it appeared that the United States and Iran were on the verge of agreeing to a peace deal. A day later, that hope seems to have dimmed after American forces attacked missile sites in southern Iran and boats trying to lay mines. The hopes for a peace agreement were dealt another blow when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to “crush” Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tehran has demanded that any peace accord apply to the fighting in Lebanon as well.

So, are peace talks on? Why did the US launch these strikes? What comes next? As questions swirl, we try to unpack everything taking place.

The US strikes in southern Iran On Monday (May 25), the US military carried out strikes in southern Iran against ​targets including boats attempting ​to lay mines and missile ​launch sites. According to the US Central Command, the strikes were designed to “protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces”. “US Central ​Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ​ongoing ceasefire,” said Navy ​Captain Tim Hawkins, a Central Command spokesperson.

According to a New York Times report, the US target was an area near Bandar Abbas, a southern port city and home to an Iranian naval base on the Strait of Hormuz. A senior US official told Fox News that two boats linked to the IRGC were caught laying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. US forces reportedly destroyed both vessels and also struck a surface-to-air missile site in Bandar Abbas that was allegedly targeting American warplanes. Vessels anchored at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman.

Reuters Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said in a short statement that three explosions had been heard in the port city of Bandar Abbas. In a later statement, the IRGC said the sound of an explosion had been heard near Bandar Abbas airport. Iran’s air defence system in Bandar Abbas “has been activated to counter hostile targets,” the IRGC added. Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) also reported that the “sound of several consecutive explosions was heard around midnight … in Bandar Abbas city, the cause of which has not yet been announced by official sources.” Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, citing witnesses, said similar sounds were also reported in the Persian Gulf near Sirik and Jask.

Netanyahu vows to wipe out Hezbollah While the US carried out strikes in Iran, Israel intensified attacks on Lebanon, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating that he had ordered the military to escalate its offensive in Lebanon in an effort to “crush” Hezbollah. Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike on the Rashidieh Palestinian refugee camp in the Tyre district of southern Lebanon.

Despite a ceasefire that came into effect on April 17, Israel and Hezbollah have continued to exchange fire on a near-daily basis. AFP “I have ordered an even greater acceleration of our operations,” Netanyahu said in a video statement posted on his Telegram channel. “It is true that they are attacking us with drones, including fibre-optic drones, but we have teams working on countermeasures, and we will solve this issue... We will intensify our blows, increase our firepower, and we will crush them.” An AFP reporter said that he saw residents fleeing the southern suburbs of Beirut, a stronghold of Hezbollah. On Monday evening, the Israeli air force carried out strikes in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon.

Earlier, dozens of Israeli strikes targeted towns in southern Lebanon as well as towns near the ancient city of Tyre. Peace talks continue under shadow of strikes The timing of the US strikes and Israel’s escalation is significant. The moves come as Iranian leaders travelled to Qatar with the aim of agreeing to a deal to end the war. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati were reported on Monday evening to be in Doha to discuss sticking points related to the potential deal to end the nearly three-month US-Israel war on Iran.

Earlier, both sides, the US and Iran, played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough. This came after US President Donald Trump stated over the weekend that the deal was “largely negotiated”.

According to insiders, the two warring nations have agreed upon a deal, which would stop the fighting, see the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and set off a 60-day process for tackling other issues, chief among them Iran’s nuclear programme. However, on Sunday, Trump cautioned negotiators against “rushing into a deal” with Iran. A day later, he also noted that another breakthrough in the talks may have been achieved over the contentious issue of Tehran’s enriched uranium. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the enriched uranium — which he described as “nuclear dust” — could either be handed over to the United States for destruction or dismantled inside Iran under international supervision.

The question, now, however, is whether talks will proceed after the US strikes? According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is currently in India, stated that a deal with Iran is still possible. “There were some talks going on in Qatar today, so we’ll see if we can make progress. I think it’s a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document, so it’ll take a few days,” said Rubio, adding, “The president’s expressed his desire to make it. He’s either going to make a good deal or no deal.” Adam Clements, a former US diplomat and Pentagon official, also believed that the US strikes, while significant, wouldn’t hamper the peace talks.

He told Al Jazeera that he thinks formal diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran are still moving, and the strikes will not derail the overall process. Many in the US also seemed to think that the strikes would not hamper the ongoing talks. With inputs from agencies